Archive for the ‘Entrepreneurship’ Category

The 18 Mistakes That Kill Startups

Tuesday, October 31st, 2006

希望这18条警句对我或者其他相同想法的人有所帮助。。。

In the Q & A period after a recent talk, someone asked what made startups fail. After standing there gaping for a few seconds I realized this was kind of a trick question. It’s equivalent to asking how to make a startup succeed
—if you avoid every cause of failure, you succeed—and that’s too big a question to answer on the fly.

http://digg.com/tech_news/The_18_Mistakes_That_Kill_Startups/blog

read more | digg story

We need a Chinese Digital Life Video Cast Channel

Wednesday, June 14th, 2006

一段iPod的Promotion Video,看了这样的AD, 要拒绝iPod也难啊

iPod AD: Move it 点击图片或这里。

最近部门搬家到厚木,上下班一下变成了单程一个半小时。同时项目上的变化也让我可以停下来仔细观察和考虑一些东西。上下班时间的变成让我有时候把存在iPod里面的大量的视频Podcasting有机会看了一变。那个每集50多分钟的dl.tv, 我本来从来没有耐心看两个男Geek在那里边讨论业界新闻边谈笑。不过我后来发现,这个节目原来很好看。其他还有短的Hak.5, Attack of Show 以及GeekBrief.TV

突然发现中文的这方面的Podcasting少之又少,VideoCasting更少。中文内容还停留在搞笑恶俗讽刺阶段。中文Videocasting的著名的dodolook也只是个小美女搞搞笑而已。而菠萝网上的热门搜索的视频内容竟然是自慰锵锵三人行的播客不错,但是是电视台内容的原版录制,不能算是草根的民间制作。唯一比较务实的好像就是亚宁证券广播电台客奇集的播客News98不错,但是是台湾的内容。这些还都是Podcasting, 不是VideoCasting or Video Podcasting.

现在数码产品越来越深入的大家的生活中,而且越来越复杂。很多大众不知道如何使用和享受现代的数字生活,又有很多人被大量的概念吓倒或混淆,还有很多人确是对数字小玩意儿发烧不已。虽然互联网上有大量的答案和信息,但是我们缺少一个针对大量使用者和爱好者的Channel. 现在是一个数字时代。制作Video并且Publish出去也已经非常容易了。我们需要一个好的中文的Technology and Digital Life Channel. Engadget中文做的不错,但是只零星推出1-2次Video。 Video给人们带来的直观印象比Web和audio Podcast强上n倍。

所以我期待一个中文的以介绍现代数字生活和技术以及整个行业的民间的VideoCast。针对的用户很明显就是那些现在那些非常热衷Gadget的青年男性(Geeks), 所以我们需要一个年轻漂亮但是懂各种技术缩写的女主持人。现在制作发行个人Video的成本已经降低到很低的程度,所以从商业模式来讲也是有利可图,而且目标用户群分割得非常明晰。机会就在眼前,大家来做吧。

只有竞争,才能给用户带来最好的体验,我们也就会有一个真正现代数字生活的VideoCast Channel.

Some Advice on Podlook.com

Tuesday, March 21st, 2006

www.podlook.com菠萝网(http://www.podlook.com)是个不错的网站,创始人之一是我的校友,其创始人之二是我的同学。 他们率先看到了Blogger->播客的市场所在。前两天看到菠萝有话说Blog上说要Find a way out. 作为一个局外人不知道他们碰到了什么样的问题,需要找到一条出路。不过正借此机会向Podlook提出一些作为用户和旁观者的建议。


我看菠萝网于定位于播客
(Podcaster)的聚集,是一个Aggregator.它其实应该起两方面的作用:


1.
面向播客

菠萝网现在提供了指向各个中文播客的Feeds和介绍,并且作了Tags,排名等等。这些是基础但是这些还远远不够。Blogger现在在中文网络上终于发展起来了,Blogger有大大小小的BSP可以选择。对个人播客来说进入门槛还比较高,如何降低个人播客的难度,推动个人播客的兴起,以及如何帮助那些专业播客成为更好的播客是一个非常重要的方向。

现在的菠萝网主要依赖于菠萝网自身的用户对播客进行排名,分类,但是这么做本身并没有带个播客们太多的帮助。菠萝网需要为播客做更多的事情来帮助他们,例如

a. 可以做一些code让播客们贴到他们自己的Web上去,这样评分和统计信息就不再取决于菠萝网自己的用户了。

b. 可以在Feed Service下功夫,让播客们采用菠萝网的Feed来发布信息。这方面Feedburner已经先走了一步。

这样菠萝网在自身用户数还不是很多的情况下,仍然可以得到大量的统计数据。并以此为基础回馈给播客们以更好的服务和数据分析来帮助他们提高Podcasting的水平并降低难度。

2. 面向用户

对用户来说,如何提高用户对菠萝网的粘性非常重要。但是这种粘性不是基于脸皮厚,而是得基于开放和用户真正使用的体验。这方面的典型例子就是Flickr.

菠萝网需要提供每个用户所订阅的所有播客内容的融合Feed.用户可以在Web上通过Browser阅读,收听播客。现在的播客更像个人电台,但是从发展来看播客决不会是简单的网络个人电台的发展,播客将融合与Blogger以及将来的Videocast(or Vodcast), 所以用户需要一个一致和无缝的User Interface来整合Blog Feed, Podcasting Feed, Photocasting Feed 以及Videocasting Feed.

a. 用户可以在菠萝网的整合所有内容的Web下访问所有的Blog casting内容。(类似于多媒体支持的Bloglines, Google Reader在这方面已经支持mp3Podcasting

b. 菠萝网需要将每个人的订阅的所有内容融合成一个Feed. 用户可以将这个Feed倒出到自己喜欢的应用程序和同步软件中去。菠萝网可以发布自己的软件,来整合所有这些内容(多媒体的Rss Reader目前好像至少还不普及),也要允许用户使用他们自己喜欢的软件。

c. 菠萝网要在融合Feed的基础上提供整套Web API来让第三方可以开发围绕菠萝网的软件。因为菠萝网是个Startup, 它没有能力同时做很多事情。但是速度又是如此的重要,所以菠萝网需要开放出来,利用群众的力量来完善用户体验,比如现在菠萝网的同步软件所起来还是非常初步的,开放以后可以有利于其他厂商或者个人开发出更好的软件,本身对菠萝网也是一大帮助.

How to start a Startup (ZT)

Friday, March 11th, 2005

You need three things to create a successful startup: to start with good people, to make something customers actually want, and to spend as little money as possible. Most startups that fail do it because they fail at one of these. A startup that does all three will probably succeed.’ How difficult can that be? So go start them startups.

How to Start a Startup

March 2005(This essay is derived from a talk at the Harvard Computer Society. It’s not meant to be complete; I skipped some topics I’ve already written about in “How to Make Wealth,” in Hackers & Painters.)

You need three things to create a successful startup: to start with good people, to make something customers actually want, and to spend as little money as possible. Most startups that fail do it because they fail at one of these. A startup that does all three will probably succeed.

And that’s kind of exciting, when you think about it, because all three are doable. Hard, but doable. And since a startup that succeeds ordinarily makes its founders rich, that implies getting rich is doable too. Hard, but doable.

If there is one message I’d like to get across about startups, that’s it. There is no magically difficult step that requires brilliance to solve.

The Idea

In particular, you don’t need a brilliant idea to start a startup around. The way a startup makes money is to offer people better technology than they have now. But what people have now is often so bad that it doesn’t take brilliance to do better.

Google’s plan, for example, was simply to create a search site that didn’t suck. They had three new ideas: index more of the Web, use links to rank search results, and have clean, simple web pages with unintrusive keyword-based ads. Above all, they were determined to make a site that was good to use. No doubt there are great technical tricks within Google, but the overall plan was straightforward. And while they probably have bigger ambitions now, this alone brings them a billion dollars a year. [1]

There are plenty of other areas that are just as backward as search was before Google. I can think of several heuristics for generating ideas for startups, but most reduce to this: look at something people are trying to do, and figure out how to do it in a way that doesn’t suck.

For example, dating sites currently suck far worse than search did before Google. They all use the same simple-minded model. They seem to have approached the problem by thinking about how to do database matches instead of how dating works in the real world. An undergrad could build something better as a class project. And yet there’s a lot of money at stake. Online dating is a valuable business now, and it might be worth a hundred times as much if it worked.

An idea for a startup, however, is only a beginning. A lot of would-be startup founders think the key to the whole process is the initial idea, and from that point all you have to do is execute. Venture capitalists know better. If you go to VC firms with a brilliant idea that you’ll tell them about if they sign a nondisclosure agreement, most will tell you to get lost. That shows how much a mere idea is worth. The market price is less than the inconvenience of signing an NDA.

Another sign of how little the initial idea is worth is the number of startups that change their plan en route. Microsoft’s original plan was to make money selling programming languages, of all things. Their current business model didn’t occur to them until IBM dropped it in their lap five years later.

Ideas for startups are worth something, certainly, but the trouble is, they’re not transferrable. They’re not something you could hand to someone else to execute. Their value is mainly as starting points: as questions for the people who had them to continue thinking about.

What matters is not ideas, but the people who have them. Good people can fix bad ideas, but good ideas can’t save bad people.

People

What do I mean by good people? One of the best tricks I learned during our startup was a rule for deciding who to hire. Could you describe the person as an animal? It might be hard to translate that into another language, but I think everyone in the US knows what it means. It means someone who takes their work a little too seriously; someone who does what they do so well that they pass right through professional and cross over into obsessive.

What it means specifically depends on the job: a salesperson who just won’t take no for an answer; a hacker who will stay up till 4:00 AM rather than go to bed leaving code with a bug in it; a PR person who will cold-call New York Times reporters on their cell phones; a graphic designer who feels physical pain when something is two millimeters out of place.

Almost everyone who worked for us was an animal at what they did. The woman in charge of sales was so tenacious that I used to feel sorry for potential customers on the phone with her. You could sense them squirming on the hook, but you knew there would be no rest for them till they’d signed up.

If you think about people you know, you’ll find the animal test is easy to apply. Call the person’s image to mind and imagine the sentence “so-and-so is an animal.” If you laugh, they’re not. You don’t need or perhaps even want this quality in big companies, but you need it in a startup.

For programmers we had three additional tests. Was the person genuinely smart? If so, could they actually get things done? And finally, since a few good hackers have unbearable personalities, could we stand to have them around?

That last test filters out surprisingly few people. We could bear any amount of nerdiness if someone was truly smart. What we couldn’t stand were people with a lot of attitude. But most of those weren’t truly smart, so our third test was largely a restatement of the first.

When nerds are unbearable it’s usually because they’re trying too hard to seem smart. But the smarter they are, the less pressure they feel to act smart. So as a rule you can recognize genuinely smart people by their ability to say things like “I don’t know,” “Maybe you’re right,” and “I don’t understand x well enough.”

This technique doesn’t always work, because people can be influenced by their environment. In the MIT CS department, there seems to be a tradition of acting like a brusque know-it-all. I’m told it derives ultimately from Marvin Minsky, in the same way the classic airline pilot manner is said to derive from Chuck Yeager. Even genuinely smart people start to act this way there, so you have to make allowances.

It helped us to have Robert Morris, who is one of the readiest to say “I don’t know” of anyone I’ve met. (At least, he was before he became a professor at MIT.) No one dared put on attitude around Robert, because he was obviously smarter than they were and yet had zero attitude himself.

Like most startups, ours began with a group of friends, and it was through personal contacts that we got most of the people we hired. This is a crucial difference between startups and big companies. Being friends with someone for even a couple days will tell you more than companies could ever learn in interviews. [2]

It’s no coincidence that startups start around universities, because that’s where smart people meet. It’s not what people learn in classes at MIT and Stanford that has made technology companies spring up around them. They could sing campfire songs in the classes so long as admissions worked the same.

If you start a startup, there’s a good chance it will be with people you know from college or grad school. So in theory you ought to try to make friends with as many smart people as you can in school, right? Well, no. Don’t make a conscious effort to schmooze; that doesn’t work well with hackers.

What you should do in college is work on your own projects. Hackers should do this even if they don’t plan to start startups, because it’s the only real way to learn how to program. In some cases you may collaborate with other students, and this is the best way to get to know good hackers. The project may even grow into a startup. But once again, I wouldn’t aim too directly at either target. Don’t force things; just work on stuff you like with people you like.

Ideally you want between two and four founders. It would be hard to start with just one. One person would find the moral weight of starting a company hard to bear. Even Bill Gates, who seems to be able to bear a good deal of moral weight, had to have a co-founder. But you don’t want so many founders that the company starts to look like a group photo. Partly because you don’t need a lot of people at first, but mainly because the more founders you have, the worse disagreements you’ll have. When there are just two or three founders, you know you have to resolve disputes immediately or perish. If there are seven or eight, disagreements can linger and harden into factions. You don’t want mere voting; you need unanimity.

In a technology startup, which most startups are, the founders should include technical people. During the Internet Bubble there were a number of startups founded by business people who then went looking for hackers to create their product for them. This doesn’t work well. Business people are bad at deciding what to do with technology, because they don’t know what the options are, or which kinds of problems are hard and which are easy. And when business people try to hire hackers, they can’t tell which ones are good. Even other hackers have a hard time doing that. For business people it’s roulette.

Do the founders of a startup have to include business people? That depends. We thought so when we started ours, and we asked several people who were said to know about this mysterious thing called “business” if they would be the president. But they all said no, so I had to do it myself. And what I discovered was that business was no great mystery. It’s not something like physics or medicine that requires extensive study. You just try to get people to pay you for stuff.

I think the reason I made such a mystery of business was that I was disgusted by the idea of doing it. I wanted to work in the pure, intellectual world of software, not deal with customers’ mundane problems. People who don’t want to get dragged into some kind of work often develop a protective incompetence at it. Paul Erdos was particularly good at this. By seeming unable even to cut a grapefruit in half (let alone go to the store and buy one), he forced other people to do such things for him, leaving all his time free for math. Erdos was an extreme case, but most husbands use the same trick to some degree.

Once I was forced to discard my protective incompetence, I found that business was neither so hard nor so boring as I feared. There are esoteric areas of business that are quite hard, like tax law or the pricing of derivatives, but you don’t need to know about those in a startup. All you need to know about business to run a startup are commonsense things people knew before there were business schools, or even universities.

If you work your way down the Forbes 400 making an x next to the name of each person with an MBA, you’ll learn something important about business school. You don’t even hit an MBA till number 22, Phil Knight, the CEO of Nike. There are only four MBAs in the top 50. What you notice in the Forbes 400 are a lot of people with technical backgrounds. Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Larry Ellison, Michael Dell, Jeff Bezos, Gordon Moore. The rulers of the technology business tend to come from technology, not business. So if you want to invest two years in something that will help you succeed in business, the evidence suggests you’d do better to learn how to hack than get an MBA. [3]

There is one reason you might want to include business people in a startup, though: because you have to have at least one person willing and able to focus on what customers want. Some believe only business people can do this– that hackers can implement software, but not design it. That’s nonsense. There’s nothing about knowing how to program that prevents hackers from understanding users, or about not knowing how to program that magically enables business people to understand them.

If you can’t understand users, however, you should either learn how or find a co-founder who can. That is the single most important issue for technology startups, and the rock that sinks more of them than anything else.

What Customers Want

It’s not just startups that have to worry about this. I think most businesses that fail do it because they don’t give customers what they want. Look at restaurants. A large percentage fail, about a quarter in the first year. But can you think of one restaurant that had really good food and went out of business?

Restaurants with great food seem to prosper no matter what. A restaurant with great food can be expensive, crowded, noisy, dingy, out of the way, and even have bad service, and people will keep coming. It’s true that a restaurant with mediocre food can sometimes attract customers through gimmicks. But that approach is very risky. It’s more straightforward just to make the food good.

It’s the same with technology. You hear all kinds of reasons why startups fail. But can you think of one that had a massively popular product and still failed?

In nearly every failed startup, the real problem was that customers didn’t want the product. For most, the cause of death is listed as “ran out of funding,” but that’s only the immediate cause. Why couldn’t they get more funding? Probably because the product was a dog, or never seemed likely to be done, or both.

When I was trying to think of the things every startup needed to do, I almost included a fourth: get a version 1 out as soon as you can. But I decided not to, because that’s implicit in making something customers want. The only way to make something customers want is to get a prototype in front of them and refine it based on their reactions.

The other approach is what I call the “Hail Mary” strategy. You make elaborate plans for a product, hire a team of engineers to develop it (people who do this tend to use the term “engineer” for hackers), and then find after a year that you’ve spent two million dollars to develop something no one wants. This was not uncommon during the Bubble, especially in companies run by business types, who thought of software development as something terrifying that therefore had to be carefully planned.

We never even considered that approach. As a Lisp hacker, I come from the tradition of rapid prototyping. I would not claim (at least, not here) that this is the right way to write every program, but it’s certainly the right way to write software for a startup. In a startup, your initial plans are almost certain to be wrong in some way, and your first priority should be to figure out where. The only way to do that is to try implementing them.

Like most startups, we changed our plan on the fly. At first we expected our customers to be Web consultants. But it turned out they didn’t like us, because our software was easy to use and we hosted the site. It would be too easy for clients to fire them. We also thought we’d be able to sign up a lot of catalog companies, because selling online was a natural extension of their existing business. But in 1996 that was a hard sell. The middle managers we talked to at catalog companies saw the Web not as an opportunity, but as something that meant more work for them.

We did get a few of the more adventurous catalog companies. Among them was Frederick’s of Hollywood, which gave us valuable experience dealing with heavy loads on our servers. But most of our users were small, individual merchants who saw the Web as an opportunity to build a business. Some had retail stores, but many only existed online. And so we changed direction to focus on these users. Instead of concentrating on the features Web consultants and catalog companies would want, we worked to make the software easy to use.

I learned something valuable from that. It’s worth trying very, very hard to make technology easy to use. Hackers are so used to computers that they have no idea how horrifying software seems to normal people. Stephen Hawking’s editor told him that every equation he included in his book would cut sales in half. When you work on making technology easier to use, you’re riding that curve up instead of down. A 10% improvement in ease of use doesn’t just increase your sales 10%. It’s more likely to double your sales.

How do you figure out what customers want? Watch them. One of the best places to do this was at trade shows. Trade shows didn’t pay as a way of getting new customers, but they were worth it as market research. We didn’t just give canned presentations at trade shows. We used to show people how to build real, working stores. Which meant we got to watch as they used our software, and talk to them about what they needed.

No matter what kind of startup you start, it will probably be a stretch for you, the founders, to understand what users want. The only kind of software you can build without studying users is the sort for which you are the typical user. But this is just the kind that tends to be open source: operating systems, programming languages, editors, and so on. So if you’re developing technology for money, you’re probably not going to be developing it for people like you. Indeed, you can use this as a way to generate ideas for startups: what do people who are not like you want from technology?

When most people think of startups, they think of companies like Apple or Google. Everyone knows these, because they’re big consumer brands. But for every startup like that, there are twenty more that operate in niche markets or live quietly down in the infrastructure. So if you start a successful startup, odds are you’ll start one of those.

Another way to say that is, if you try to start the kind of startup that has to be a big consumer brand, the odds against succeeding are steeper. The best odds are in niche markets. Since startups make money by offering people something better than they had before, the best opportunities are where things suck most. And it would be hard to find a place where things suck more than in corporate IT departments. You would not believe the amount of money companies spend on software, and the crap they get in return. This imbalance equals opportunity.

If you want ideas for startups, one of the most valuable things you could do is find a middle-sized non-technology company and spend a couple weeks just watching what they do with computers. Most good hackers have no more idea of the horrors perpetrated in these places than rich Americans do of what goes on in Brazilian slums.

Start by writing software for smaller companies, because it’s easier to sell to them. It’s worth so much to sell stuff to big companies that the people selling them the crap they currently use spend a lot of time and money to do it. And while you can outhack Oracle with one frontal lobe tied behind your back, you can’t outsell an Oracle salesman. So if you want to win through better technology, aim at smaller customers. [4]

They’re the more strategically valuable part of the market anyway. In technology, the low end always eats the high end. It’s easier to make an inexpensive product more powerful than to make a powerful product cheaper. So the products that start as cheap, simple options tend to gradually grow more powerful till, like water rising in a room, they squash the “high-end” products against the ceiling. Sun did this to mainframes, and Intel is doing it to Sun. Microsoft Word did it to desktop publishing software like Interleaf and Framemaker. Mass-market digital cameras are doing it to the expensive models made for professionals. Avid did it to the manufacturers of specialized video editing systems, and now Apple is doing it to Avid. Henry Ford did it to the car makers that preceded him. If you build the simple, inexpensive option, you’ll not only find it easier to sell at first, but you’ll also be in the best position to conquer the rest of the market.

It’s very dangerous to let anyone fly under you. If you have the cheapest, easiest product, you’ll own the low end. And if you don’t, you’re in the crosshairs of whoever does.

Raising Money

To make all this happen, you’re going to need money. Some startups have been self-funding– Microsoft for example– but most aren’t. I think it’s wise to take money from investors. To be self-funding, you have to start as a consulting company, and it’s hard to switch from that to a product company.

Financially, a startup is like a pass/fail course. The way to get rich from a startup is to maximize the company’s chances of succeeding, not to maximize the amount of stock you retain. So if you can trade stock for something that improves your odds, it’s probably a smart move.

To most hackers, getting investors seems like a terrifying and mysterious process. Actually it’s merely tedious. I’ll try to give an outline of how it works.

The first thing you’ll need is a few tens of thousands of dollars to pay your expenses while you develop a prototype. This is called seed capital. Because so little money is involved, raising seed capital is comparatively easy– at least in the sense of getting a quick yes or no.

Usually you get seed money from individual rich people called “angels.” Often they’re people who themselves got rich from technology. At the seed stage, investors don’t expect you to have an elaborate business plan. Most know that they’re supposed to decide quickly. It’s not unusual to get a check within a week based on a half-page agreement.

Some angels, especially those with technology backgrounds, may be satisfied with a demo and a verbal description of what you plan to do. But many will want a copy of your business plan, if only to remind themselves what they invested in.

Our angels asked for one, and looking back, I’m amazed how much worry it caused me. “Business plan” has that word “business” in it, so I figured it had to be something I’d have to read a book about business plans to write. Well, it doesn’t. At this stage, all most investors expect is a brief description of what you plan to do and how you’re going to make money from it, and the resumes of the founders. If you just sit down and write out what you’ve been saying to one another, that should be fine. It shouldn’t take more than a couple hours, and you’ll probably find that writing it all down gives you more ideas about what to do.

For the angel to have someone to make the check out to, you’re going to have to have some kind of company. Merely incorporating yourselves isn’t hard. The problem is, for the company to exist, you have to decide who the founders are, and how much stock they each have. If there are two founders with the same qualifications who are both equally committed to the business, that’s easy. But if you have a number of people who are expected to contribute in varying degrees, arranging the proportions of stock can be hard. And once you’ve done it, it tends to be set in stone.

I have no tricks for dealing with this problem. All I can say is, try hard to do it right. I do have a rule of thumb for recognizing when you have, though. When everyone feels they’re getting a slightly bad deal, that they’re doing more than they should for the amount of stock they have, the stock is optimally apportioned.

There is more to setting up a company than incorporating it, of course: insurance, business license, unemployment compensation, various things with the IRS. I’m not even sure what the list is, because we, ah, skipped all that. When we got real funding near the end of 1996, we hired a great CFO, who fixed everything retroactively. It turns out that no one comes and arrests you if you don’t do everything you’re supposed to when starting a company. And a good thing too, or a lot of startups would never get started. [5]

It can be dangerous to delay turning yourself into a company, because one or more of the founders might decide to split off and start another company doing the same thing. This does happen. So when you set up the company, as well as as apportioning the stock, you should get all the founders to sign something agreeing that everyone’s ideas belong to this company, and that this company is going to be everyone’s only job.

[If this were a movie, ominous music would begin here.]

While you’re at it, you should ask what else they’ve signed. One of the worst things that can happen to a startup is to run into intellectual property problems. We did, and it came closer to killing us than any competitor ever did.

As we were in the middle of getting bought, we discovered that one of our people had, early on, been bound by an agreement that said all his ideas belonged to the giant company that was paying for him to go to grad school. In theory, that could have meant someone else owned big chunks of our software. So the acquisition came to a screeching halt while we tried to sort this out. The problem was, since we’d been about to be acquired, we’d allowed ourselves to run low on cash. Now we needed to raise more to keep going. But it’s hard to raise money with an IP cloud over your head, because investors can’t judge how serious it is.

Our existing investors, knowing that we needed money and had nowhere else to get it, at this point attempted certain gambits which I will not describe in detail, except to remind readers that the word “angel” is a metaphor. The founders thereupon proposed to walk away from the company, after giving the investors a brief tutorial on how to administer the servers themselves. And while this was happening, the acquirers used the delay as an excuse to welch on the deal.

Miraculously it all turned out ok. The investors backed down; we did another round of funding at a reasonable valuation; the giant company finally gave us a piece of paper saying they didn’t own our software; and six months later we were bought by Yahoo for much more than the earlier acquirer had agreed to pay. So we were happy in the end, though the experience probably took several years off my life.

Don’t do what we did. Before you consummate a startup, ask everyone about their previous IP history.

Once you’ve got a company set up, it may seem presumptuous to go knocking on the doors of rich people and asking them to invest tens of thousands of dollars in something that is really just a bunch of guys with some ideas. But when you look at it from the rich people’s point of view, the picture is more encouraging. Most rich people are looking for good investments. If you really think you have a chance of succeeding, you’re doing them a favor by letting them invest. Mixed with any annoyance they might feel about being approached will be the thought: are these guys the next Google?

Usually angels are financially equivalent to founders. They get the same kind of stock and get diluted the same amount in future rounds. How much stock should they get? That depends on how ambitious you feel. When you offer x percent of your company for y dollars, you’re implicitly claiming a certain value for the whole company. Venture investments are usually described in terms of that number. If you give an investor new shares equal to 5% of those already outstanding in return for $100,000, then you’ve done the deal at a pre-money valuation of $2 million.

How do you decide what the value of the company should be? There is no rational way. At this stage the company is just a bet. I didn’t realize that when we were raising seed money. Julian, our lawyer, thought we ought to value the company at several million dollars. I thought it was preposterous to claim that a couple thousand lines of code, which was all we had at the time, were worth several million dollars. Eventually we settled on one millon, because Julian said no one would invest in a company with a valuation any lower.

What I didn’t grasp at the time was that the valuation wasn’t just the value of the code we’d written so far. It was also the value of our ideas, which turned out to be right, and of all the future work we’d do, which turned out to be a lot.

The next round of funding is the one in which you might deal with actual venture capital firms. But don’t wait till you’ve burned through the seed money to start approaching them. VCs are slow to make up their minds. They can take months. You don’t want to be running out of money while you’re trying to negotiate with them.

Getting money from an actual VC firm is a bigger deal than getting seed funding. The amounts of money involved are larger, millions usually. So the deals take longer, dilute you more, and impose more onerous conditions.

Sometimes the VCs want to install a new CEO of their own choosing. Usually the claim is that you need someone mature and experienced, with a business background. Maybe in some cases this is true. And yet Bill Gates was young and inexperienced and had no business background, and he seems to have done ok. Steve Jobs got booted out of his own company by someone mature and experienced, with a business background, who then proceeded to ruin the company. So I think people who are mature and experienced, with a business background, may be overrated. We used to call these guys “newscasters,” because they had neat hair and spoke in deep, confident voices, and generally didn’t know much more than they read on the teleprompter.

We talked to a number of VCs, but eventually we ended up financing our startup entirely with angel money. The main reason was that we feared a brand-name VC firm would stick us with a newscaster as part of the deal. That might have been ok if he was content to limit himself to talking to the press, but what if he wanted to have a say in running the company? That would have led to disaster, because our software was so complex. We were a company whose whole m.o. was to win through better technology. The strategic decisions were mostly decisions about technology, and we didn’t need any help with those.

This was also one reason we didn’t go public. Back in 1998 our CFO tried to talk me into it. In those days you could go public as a dogfood portal, so as a company with a real product and real revenues, we might have done well. But I feared it would have meant taking on a newscaster– someone who, as they say, “can talk Wall Street’s language.”

I’m happy to see Google is bucking that trend. They didn’t talk Wall Street’s language when they did their IPO, and Wall Street didn’t buy. And now Wall Street is collectively kicking itself. They’ll pay attention next time. Wall Street learns new languages fast when money is involved.

You have more leverage negotiating with VCs than you realize. The reason is other VCs. I know a number of VCs now, and when you talk to them you realize that it’s a seller’s market. Even now there is too much money chasing too few good deals.

VCs form a pyramid. At the top are famous ones like Sequoia and Kleiner Perkins, but beneath those are a huge number you’ve never heard of. What they all have in common is that a dollar from them is worth one dollar. Most VCs will tell you that they don’t just provide money, but connections and advice. If you’re talking to Vinod Khosla or John Doerr or Mike Moritz, this is true. But such advice and connections can come very expensive. And as you go down the food chain the VCs get rapidly dumber. A few steps down from the top you’re basically talking to bankers who’ve picked up a few new vocabulary words from reading Wired. (Does your product use XML?) So I’d advise you to be skeptical about claims of experience and connections. Basically, a VC is a source of money. I’d be inclined to go with whoever offered the most money the soonest with the least strings attached.

You may wonder how much to tell VCs. And you should, because some of them may one day be funding your competitors. I think the best plan is not to be overtly secretive, but not to tell them everything either. After all, as most VCs say, they’re more interested in the people than the ideas. The main reason they want to talk about your idea is to judge you, not the idea. So as long as you seem like you know what you’re doing, you can probably keep a few things back from them. [6]

Talk to as many VCs as you can, even if you don’t want their money, because a) they may be on the board of someone who will buy you, and b) if you seem impressive, they’ll be discouraged from investing in your competitors. The most efficient way to reach VCs, especially if you only want them to know about you and don’t want their money, is at the conferences that are occasionally organized for startups to present to them.

Not Spending It

When and if you get an infusion of real money from investors, what should you do with it? Not spend it, that’s what. In nearly every startup that fails, the proximate cause is running out of money. Usually there is something deeper wrong. But even a proximate cause of death is worth trying hard to avoid.

During the Bubble many startups tried to “get big fast.” Ideally this meant getting a lot of customers fast. But it was easy for the meaning to slide over into hiring a lot of people fast.

Of the two versions, the one where you get a lot of customers fast is of course preferable. But even that may be overrated. The idea is to get there first and get all the users, leaving none for competitors. But I think in most businesses the advantages of being first to market are not so overwhelmingly great. Google is again a case in point. When they appeared it seemed as if search was a mature market, dominated by big players who’d spent millions to build their brands: Yahoo, Lycos, Excite, Infoseek, Altavista, Inktomi. Surely 1998 was a little late to arrive at the party.

But as the founders of Google knew, brand is worth next to nothing in the search business. You can come along at any point and make something better, and users will gradually seep over to you. As if to emphasize the point, Google never did any advertising. They’re like dealers; they sell the stuff, but they know better than to use it themselves.

The competitors Google buried would have done better to spend those millions improving their software. Future startups should learn from that mistake. Unless you’re in a market where products are as undifferentiated as cigarettes or vodka or laundry detergent, spending a lot on brand advertising is a sign of breakage. And few if any Web businesses are so undifferentiated. The dating sites are running big ad campaigns right now, which is all the more evidence they’re ripe for the picking. (Fee, fie, fo, fum, I smell a company run by marketing guys.)

We were compelled by circumstances to grow slowly, and in retrospect it was a good thing. The founders all learned to do every job in the company. As well as writing software, I had to do sales and customer support. At sales I was not very good. I was persistent, but I didn’t have the smoothness of a good salesman. My message to potential customers was: you’d be stupid not to sell online, and if you sell online you’d be stupid to use anyone else’s software. Both statements were true, but that’s not the way to convince people.

I was great at customer support though. Imagine talking to a customer support person who not only knew everything about the product, but would apologize abjectly if there was a bug, and then fix it immediately, while you were on the phone with them. Customers loved us. And we loved them, because when you’re growing slow by word of mouth, your first batch of users are the ones who were smart enough to find you by themselves. There is nothing more valuable, in the early stages of a startup, than smart users. If you listen to them, they’ll tell you exactly how to make a winning product. And not only will they give you this advice for free, they’ll pay you.

We officially launched in early 1996. By the end of that year we had about 70 users. Since this was the era of “get big fast,” I worried about how small and obscure we were. But in fact we were doing exactly the right thing. Once you get big (in users or employees) it gets hard to change your product. That year was effectively a laboratory for improving our software. By the end of it, we were so far ahead of our competitors that they never had a hope of catching up. And since all the hackers had spent many hours talking to users, we understood online commerce way better than anyone else.

That’s the key to success as a startup. There is nothing more important than understanding your business. You might think that anyone in a business must, ex officio, understand it. Far from it. Google’s secret weapon was simply that they understood search. I was working for Yahoo when Google appeared, and Yahoo didn’t understand search. I know because I once tried to convince the powers that be that we had to make search better, and I got in reply what was then the party line about it: that Yahoo was no longer a mere “search engine.” Search was now only a small percentage of our page views, less than one month’s growth, and now that we were established as a “media company,” or “portal,” or whatever we were, search could safely be allowed to wither and drop off, like an umbilical cord.

Well, a small fraction of page views they may be, but they are an important fraction, because they are the page views that Web sessions start with. I think Yahoo gets that now.

Google understands a few other things most Web companies still don’t. The most important is that you should put users before advertisers, even though the advertisers are paying and users aren’t. One of my favorite bumper stickers reads “if the people lead, the leaders will follow.” Paraphrased for the Web, this becomes “get all the users, and the advertisers will follow.” More generally, design your product to please users first, and then think about how to make money from it. If you don’t put users first, you leave a gap for competitors who do.

To make something users love, you have to understand them. And the bigger you are, the harder that is. So I say “get big slow.” The slower you burn through your funding, the more time you have to learn.

The other reason to spend money slowly is to encourage a culture of cheapness. That’s something Yahoo did understand. David Filo’s title was “Chief Yahoo,” but he was proud that his unofficial title was “Cheap Yahoo.” Soon after we arrived at Yahoo, we got an email from Filo, who had been crawling around our directory hierarchy, asking if it was really necessary to store so much of our data on expensive RAID drives. I was impressed by that. Yahoo’s market cap then was already in the billions, and they were still worrying about wasting a few gigs of disk space.

When you get a couple million dollars from a VC firm, you tend to feel rich. It’s important to realize you’re not. A rich company is one with large revenues. This money isn’t revenue. It’s money investors have given you in the hope you’ll be able to generate revenues. So despite those millions in the bank, you’re still poor.

For most startups the model should be grad student, not law firm. Aim for cool and cheap, not expensive and impressive. For us the test of whether a startup understood this was whether they had Aeron chairs. The Aeron came out during the Bubble and was very popular with startups. Especially the type, all too common then, that was like a bunch of kids playing house with money supplied by VCs. We had office chairs so cheap that the arms all fell off. This was slightly embarrassing at the time, but in retrospect the grad-studenty atmosphere of our office was another of those things we did right without knowing it.

Our offices were in a wooden triple-decker in Harvard Square. It had been an apartment until about the 1970s, and there was still a claw-footed bathtub in the bathroom. It must once have been inhabited by someone fairly eccentric, because a lot of the chinks in the walls were stuffed with aluminum foil, as if to protect against cosmic rays. When eminent visitors came to see us, we were a bit sheepish about the low production values. But in fact that place was the perfect space for a startup. We felt like our role was to be impudent underdogs instead of corporate stuffed shirts, and that is exactly the spirit you want.

An apartment is also the right kind of place for developing software. Cube farms suck for that, as you’ve probably discovered if you’ve tried it. Ever notice how much easier it is to hack at home than at work? So why not make work more like home?

When you’re looking for space for a startup, don’t feel that it has to look professional. Professional means doing good work, not elevators and glass walls. I’d advise most startups to avoid corporate space at first and just rent an apartment. You want to live at the office in a startup, so why not have a place designed to be lived in as your office?

Besides being cheaper and better to work in, apartments tend to be in better locations than office buildings. And for a startup location is very important. The key to productivity is for people to come back to work after dinner. Those hours after the phone stops ringing are by far the best for getting work done. Great things happen when a group of employees go out to dinner together, talk over ideas, and then come back to their offices to implement them. So you want to be in a place where there are a lot of restaurants around, not some dreary office park that’s a wasteland after 6:00 PM. Once a company shifts over into the model where everyone drives home to the suburbs for dinner, however late, you’ve lost something extraordinarily valuable. God help you if you actually start in that mode.

If I were going to start a startup today, there are only three places I’d consider doing it: on the Red Line near Central, Harvard, or Davis Squares (Kendall is too sterile); in Palo Alto on University or California Aves; and in Berkeley immediately north or south of campus. These are the only places I know that have the right kind of vibe.

The most important way to not spend money is by not hiring people. I may be an extremist, but I think hiring people is the worst thing a company can do. To start with, people are a recurring expense, which is the worst kind. They also tend to cause you to grow out of your space, and perhaps even move to the sort of uncool office building that will make your software worse. But worst of all, they slow you down: instead of sticking your head in someone’s office and checking out an idea with them, eight people have to have a meeting about it. So the fewer people you can hire, the better.

During the Bubble a lot of startups had the opposite policy. They wanted to get “staffed up” as soon as possible, as if you couldn’t get anything done unless there was someone with the corresponding job title. That’s big company thinking. Don’t hire people to fill the gaps in some a priori org chart. The only reason to hire someone is to do something you’d like to do but can’t.

If hiring unnecessary people is expensive and slows you down, why do nearly all companies do it? I think the main reason is that people like the idea of having a lot of people working for them. This weakness often extends right up to the CEO. If you ever end up running a company, you’ll find the most common question people ask is how many employees you have. This is their way of weighing you. It’s not just random people who ask this; even reporters do. And they’re going to be a lot more impressed if the answer is a thousand than if it’s ten.

This is ridiculous, really. If two companies have the same revenues, it’s the one with fewer employees that’s more impressive. When people used to ask me how many people our startup had, and I answered “twenty,” I could see them thinking that we didn’t count for much. I used to want to add “but our main competitor, whose ass we regularly kick, has a hundred and forty, so can we have credit for the larger of the two numbers?”

As with office space, the number of your employees is a choice between seeming impressive, and being impressive. Any of you who were nerds in high school know about this choice. Keep doing it when you start a company.

Should You?

But should you start a company? Are you the right sort of person to do it? If you are, is it worth it?

More people are the right sort of person to start a startup than realize it. That’s the main reason I wrote this. There could be ten times more startups than there are, and that would probably be a good thing.

I was, I now realize, exactly the right sort of person to start a startup. But the idea terrified me at first. I was forced into it because I was a Lisp hacker. The company I’d been consulting for seemed to be running into trouble, and there were not a lot of other companies using Lisp. Since I couldn’t bear the thought of programming in another language (this was 1995, remember, when “another language” meant C++) the only option seemed to be to start a new company using Lisp.

I realize this sounds far-fetched, but if you’re a Lisp hacker you’ll know what I mean. And if the idea of starting a startup frightened me so much that I only did it out of necessity, there must be a lot of people who would be good at it but who are too intimidated to try.

So who should start a startup? Someone who is a good hacker, between about 23 and 38, and who wants to solve the money problem in one shot instead of getting paid gradually over a conventional working life.

I can’t say precisely what a good hacker is. At a first rate university this might include the top half of computer science majors. Though of course you don’t have to be a CS major to be a hacker; I was a philosophy major in college.

It’s hard to tell whether you’re a good hacker, especially when you’re young. Fortunately the process of starting startups tends to select them automatically. What drives people to start startups is (or should be) looking at existing technology and thinking, don’t these guys realize they should be doing x, y, and z? And that’s also a sign that one is a good hacker.

I put the lower bound at 23 not because there’s something that doesn’t happen to your brain till then, but because you need to see what it’s like in an existing business before you try running your own. The business doesn’t have to be a startup. I spent a year working for a software company to pay off my college loans. It was the worst year of my adult life, but I learned, without realizing it at the time, a lot of valuable lessons about the software business. In this case they were mostly negative lessons: don’t have a lot of meetings; don’t have chunks of code that multiple people own; don’t have a sales guy running the company; don’t make a high-end product; don’t let your code get too big; don’t leave finding bugs to QA people; don’t go too long between releases; don’t isolate developers from users; don’t move from Cambridge to Route 128; and so on. [7] But negative lessons are just as valuable as positive ones. Perhaps even more valuable: it’s hard to repeat a brilliant performance, but it’s straightforward to avoid errors. [8]

The other reason it’s hard to start a company before 23 is that people won’t take you seriously. VCs won’t trust you, and will try to reduce you to a mascot as a condition of funding. Customers will worry you’re going to flake out and leave them stranded. Even you yourself, unless you’re very unusual, will feel your age to some degree; you’ll find it awkward to be the boss of someone much older than you, and if you’re 21, hiring only people younger rather limits your options.

Some people could probably start a company at 18 if they wanted to. Bill Gates was 19 when he and Paul Allen started Microsoft. (Paul Allen was 22, though, and that probably made a difference.) So if you’re thinking, I don’t care what he says, I’m going to start a company now, you may be the sort of person who could get away with it.

The other cutoff, 38, has a lot more play in it. One reason I put it there is that I don’t think many people have the physical stamina much past that age. I used to work till 2:00 or 3:00 AM every night, seven days a week. I don’t know if I could do that now.

Also, startups are a big risk financially. If you try something that blows up and leaves you broke at 26, big deal; a lot of 26 year olds are broke. By 38 you can’t take so many risks– especially if you have kids.

My final test may be the most restrictive. Do you actually want to start a startup? What it amounts to, economically, is compressing your working life into the smallest possible space. Instead of working at an ordinary rate for 40 years, you work like hell for four. And maybe end up with nothing– though in that case it probably won’t take four years.

During this time you’ll do little but work, because when you’re not working, your competitors will be. My only leisure activities were running, which I needed to do to keep working anyway, and about fifteen minutes of reading a night. I had a girlfriend for a total of two months during that three year period. Every couple weeks I would take a few hours off to visit a used bookshop or go to a friend’s house for dinner. I went to visit my family twice. Otherwise I just worked.

Working was often fun, because the people I worked with were some of my best friends. Sometimes it was even technically interesting. But only about 10% of the time. The best I can say for the other 90% is that some of it is funnier in hindsight than it seemed then. Like the time the power went off in Cambridge for about six hours, and we made the mistake of trying to start a gasoline powered generator inside our offices. I won’t try that again.

I don’t think the amount of bullshit you have to deal with in a startup is more than you’d endure in an ordinary working life. It’s probably less, in fact; it just seems like a lot because it’s compressed into a short period. So mainly what a startup buys you is time. That’s the way to think about it if you’re trying to decide whether to start one. If you’re the sort of person who would like to solve the money problem once and for all instead of working for a salary for 40 years, then a startup makes sense.

For a lot of people the conflict is between startups and graduate school. Grad students are just the age, and just the sort of people, to start software startups. You may worry that if you do you’ll blow your chances of an academic career. But it’s possible to be part of a startup and stay in grad school, especially at first. Two of our three original hackers were in grad school the whole time, and both got their degrees. There are few sources of energy so powerful as a procrastinating grad student.

If you do have to leave grad school, in the worst case it won’t be for too long. If a startup fails, it will probably fail quickly enough that you can return to academic life. And if it succeeds, you may find you no longer have such a burning desire to be an assistant professor.

If you want to do it, do it. Starting a startup is not the great mystery it seems from outside. It’s not something you have to know about “business” to do. Build something users love, and spend less than you make. How hard is that?

Notes

[1] Google’s revenues are about two billion a year, but half comes from ads on other sites.

[2] One advantage startups have over established companies is that there are no discrimination laws about starting businesses. For example, I would be reluctant to start a startup with a woman who had small children, or was likely to have them soon. But you’re not allowed to ask prospective employees if they plan to have kids soon. Believe it or not, under current US law, you’re not even allowed to discriminate on the basis of intelligence. Whereas when you’re starting a company, you can discriminate on any basis you want about who you start it with.

[3] Learning to hack is a lot cheaper than business school, because you can do it mostly on your own. For the price of a Linux box, a copy of K&R, and a few hours of advice from your neighbor’s fifteen year old son, you’ll be well on your way.

[4] Corollary: Avoid starting a startup to sell things to the biggest company of all, the government. Yes, there are lots of opportunities to sell them technology. But let someone else start those startups.

[5] A friend who started a company in Germany told me they do care about the paperwork there, and that there’s more of it. Which helps explain why there are not more startups in Germany.

[6] The same goes for companies that seem to want to acquire you. There will be a few that are only pretending to in order to pick your brains. But you can never tell for sure which these are, so the best approach is to seem entirely open, but to fail to mention a few critical technical secrets.

[7] I was as bad an employee as this place was a company. I apologize to anyone who had to work with me there.

[8] You could probably write a book about how to succeed in business by doing everything in exactly the opposite way from the DMV.

Thanks to Trevor Blackwell, Sarah Harlin, Jessica Livingston, and Robert Morris for reading drafts of this essay, and to Steve Melendez and Gregory Price for inviting me to speak.

不加息将引发投机最后疯狂 地产泡沫即将破裂(转载)

Tuesday, October 19th, 2004
不加息将引发投机最后疯狂 地产泡沫即将破裂
中国拒绝提高利率正在引发新一轮的投机浪潮

中国拒绝提高利率是因为中国担心房地产泡沫破裂。它将会引起新一轮的投机浪潮,这将使得经济泡沫不可避免地破裂,而且损失将更加惨重。在这期间,投机将继续支撑全球的需求,特别是在原材料行业。

世界经济正处于有史以来最大的房地产泡沫之上

美联储将利率保持在异乎寻常低的水平,并保持了很长时间,这引发了一次巨大的短期美元流动,特别是顺利地大量流向亚洲资产市场。自从2002年年初以来,亚洲的中央银行所持有的自由兑换外汇储备翻了一番,达到了2.2万亿美元。这曾经造成了对美元国债的大量购买,创造了美国的房地产泡沫。中国的基础货币投放迅速增加,也创造了巨大的房地产泡沫。

这个泡沫将在数月内破裂,不会超过一年

目前,这个泡沫是如此之大,已经导致了能源和食品供应出现严重的瓶颈现象。以美元为主导的经济体的货币环境会继续紧缩,不论是中央银行们为了对付通货膨胀而提高利率还是通货膨胀吸收了更多的货币,这两者都使得美元区的货币条件紧缩。中国的家庭储蓄存款已经开始下降,因为中国人需要在生活开销上支出更多。美国的零期限货币?MZM:一个经济体系内流通货币供应的指标,等于货币供应减定期存款加货币市场基金,或者被称为货币市场流通的货币。?的增长已经停滞。

石油价格和上海的房地产价格将成为转折点

上海是这次经济泡沫的地震中心,这种情景有如1997年的香港和1990年的东京。当由于资金短缺而使得上海房地产的需求最终下降的时候,泡沫就会破裂。

拒绝升息造成泡沫失控

中国拒绝提高利率的做法刺激每一个潜在的投机者加入到这个有史以来最大的泡沫当中,因为这些投机者相信中国政府部门有能力控制并延长目前的投资繁荣。我认为,这是最后的疯狂。随着中国的通货膨胀和美联储加息的不断发展,离“最后算账”的日子越来越近了,仅仅是几个月,而不是一年。

今年,在短短一个夏天掠过“柔性踏板”之后,全球经济再次显示出加速的趋势,这种情况给人留下了一种印象:似乎全球经济已经完成了完美的着陆。这种观点显然是错误的。全球经济根本就没有软着陆。取而代之的是,中国拒绝提高利率正在引发新一轮的投机浪潮,这支持了全球经济的增长。“有规则的”步伐所做出的就是使得投机成本一直廉价到 1.75%,因此,周期性投机浪潮不间断地为全球经济继续快速增长提供动力。

我认为,全球经济正处于有史以来最大的房地产泡沫之上,而这一泡沫是由中国和美国创造的。美国的房地产泡沫已经引起了美国的消费和中国的投资的膨胀。房地产将需求膨胀的如此之大,以致于食品和石油的供应瓶颈现象引起了通货膨胀。泡沫将突然破裂,因为货币供应紧缩,这又是由于中央银行们为了阻止通货膨胀而紧缩,或者加速了通货膨胀吸收货币的边际供应。这次经济泡沫的命运已经脱离了政策制定者们的控制。

上海房地产价格对石油价格比例的极限变化是显示调整时间点即将到来的关键。中国正在以不断上升的价格将上海的房屋出售给海外的中国人,这弥补了石油价格上升对中国经济的影响。

孪生房地产泡沫一直支撑着需求

中国和美国成为了全球需求的发动机。在 2002-2004年间,中国的贸易总额增加了6600亿美元,美国增加了3980亿美元。这一万亿美元国际贸易的增长显示了中国和美国需求的强劲。当中国经济总量相当于美国经济总量的七分之一的时候,中国的贸易增长量比美国的贸易增量多出了66%还要多。这反映出美联储的政策对中国产生了比对美国还要更加有力的影响。(见下表)

美国的贸易增长开始有些减弱,美国七月份的进口比六月份减少了1.5%,基准经过八月份的调整后,可能减少的更多,因为最近有一次微小的IT技术泡沫破裂。然而,因为今年美国的进口增长是去年的两倍,它在其他经济系统的收入效果会一直反馈回来,所以,美国贸易的减少被全球经济感觉到可能要花几个月的时间。

中国的贸易持续迅速成长,近些年的增长超过了平均水平的两倍还多。尽管石油价格不断上涨迅速增加了进口的开支,中国仍然继续保持顺差。因为美国的需求减少,中国就逐渐成为了全球经济唯一的需求发动机。中国经济总量只占全球经济总量的4%,中国之所以扮演着如此重大的角色是因为在格林斯潘对利率政策的“运筹帷幄”之时在中国创造了一个巨大的泡沫。

亚洲给美国宽松货币政策加压

在IT泡沫破裂以后,在美国市场,资本回报率迅速下降。为了缓解IT泡沫所带来的痛苦,美联储快速地削减利率。9.11事件和伊拉克战争延缓了这一以改善货币条件为主要方式的刺激政策对需求的正面刺激。这导致了一个空前的低利率时期,这引发了大量的“carry trade”,即利率差价交易(在国外市场借入资金,然后在国内市场上买入固定收益证券以抵消国外市场上所持有的头寸,个体投资者会选择努力利用国外市场的低利率。这种情况下投资者几乎能够获得无风险的投资回报,除非汇率发生了不能预料的变化。译者注),这种交易主要引发了亚洲的资产市场繁荣。

亚洲的中央银行们不希望投资资本来决定它们货币的价值。美联储基准利率之低和维持的时间都达到了空前的水平,再加上对冲基金的繁荣,导致了投资资本海啸般流向了亚洲。自2002年年初以来,亚洲国家的外汇储备的外汇储备翻了一番。达到了2.2万亿美元。外汇储备增长的1.1万亿美元中的大部分被再次循环进入了美国国债市场,这导致了真实收益率下降到了空前低的水平。

亚洲中央银行们的行动给格林斯潘的货币政策带来压力。这种情况导致了一种印象:好象是格林斯潘先生购买了美国的国债。作为结果的长期的低利率在经济陷入萧条的时候引起了美国的房地产价格上升,在收入没有增长的情况下,通过抵押再融资的方式刺激了美国的消费增长。

还在继续吹大的中国泡沫

中国经济一直处在资本回报率很低的环境中。我猜测,以名义美元计算,中国的投资回报率平均为大约3-5%的水平。美国的资本平均回报率大约是这一水平的两倍。如果考虑了到中国投资的风险贴水为 2-4%,中国和美国的对比会变得更加不容乐观。因为相比之下少得可怜的投资回报,中国遭受了创历史记录的资本流出。

对于中国来说,当美国国债的收益率下降的时候,它引发了一部分中国逃逸资本回流。额外的流动性进入了房地产市场,引起了原材料价格的上涨,抬升了在中国投资的资本平均回报率。上涨的房地产价格是改善资本回报率的主要来源,而同时上涨的房价也创造了对原材料的强大购买力。

美国利率很低保证了有进取心的投机者们寻找新的回报可能性。中国的繁荣最终导致了对人民币升值的巨大投机。在中国银行系统中,这引起了流动性的海啸,这又引起了当前能够带来最大回报的行业借入大量资金,主要是用于日用品产业和房地产行业的发展。

借款狂潮创造了中国的房地产需求。首先,借款狂潮的“渗漏”为那些想把自己贪污的钱“漂白”的人创造了机会。第二,被借款狂潮所引起的通货膨胀推动中国的家庭部门将资金从储蓄存款中撤出,用来购买房地产以对冲通货膨胀。第三,因为房地产价格已经连续快速增长了六个年头,海外和地方的投机者们跃跃欲试,购买了房屋,只为了一个目的:等待价格的上涨。

日益增长的房地产需求和发展已经创造出并且还在继续引发螺旋式上涨。一些人能够很容易地获得资金,更加鼓励越来越多的人跳进这种游戏。中国拒绝提高利率再次刺激投机者们进入到疯狂状态。

货币紧缩已经开始

即使一个人能够把当前的情况是一个泡沫这一现实说的明明白白,除非这个明摆着的现实发展到了转折点的时点,否则,大多数投资者仍然不会离开这个“游戏”。而在时机上能够迷惑投资者的主要原因是相关方面的表现埋下了祸根,而大家浑然不知。因为大多数基金只报告每个季度的表现,它们并不承担赌博的后果是正确的,但是可能会花超过三个月的时间去设计其投资计划。

我们知道的是,在这个泡沫中哪里有货币紧缩。日益提高的美国利率和通货膨胀减少了可以用来继续吹大泡沫(也就说,美国消费者的举债消费和中国用于投资的借款)的可用之钱。

中国的储蓄存款的增长出现停滞,原因是通货膨胀增加了生活支出、为了在通货膨胀的环境中保证自己的财富不缩水而购买了房屋、快速上涨的抵押贷款分流了储蓄存款。这种情况在十年前的中国曾经发生过。当出现借贷繁荣的时候,它首先会引起家庭收入和储蓄存款迅速上升。随后,继起的通货膨胀增加了家庭消费支出,引起家庭储蓄存款下降。在本轮经济周期中,家庭储蓄存款在2003年出现了年增长率达到19.2%的高峰,在今年8月却下降了15.4%。

美国的货币流通额增长也出现了停滞。主要原因就是最近美联储提高了利率导致了货币需求的减少。在上个世纪90年代,美国货币市场流通的货币(MZM)出现了年平均增长率达到7.7%的水平,在本轮经济周期中,MZM的增长在2001年达到了21.3%,而今年8月份已经放慢到2.5%的水平。

当市场出现了大多数人都是赢家的时候,也就是股票和房地产的价格增长超过利率的时候,投机将会发生。伴随着房地产和股票市场市值不断增长,它需要更多的钱以保证游戏可以进行下去。当货币供应量开始下降的时候,这将是发生在投机停止进行之前的事情,之后投机应该结束。

上海房价和油价下降是反转信号

在每个泡沫中,引起泡沫破裂的原因都是不同的。一般的思路是有一件事情引起货币供应量下降。在1989年,日本银行提高了利率,戳破了东京房地产的泡沫。在1994年,墨西哥持续增长的贸易赤字最终引发了信任危机,而财政赤字最终导致了国际资金撤离了墨西哥。类似地,在1996年,持续恶化的贸易赤字引起了国际市场对泰国的信任危机,这造成了东南亚房地产泡沫突然破裂。在1998年,石油价格的崩溃是亚洲金融危机的结果,而油价的崩溃引起了俄罗斯债务泡沫的崩溃。在1999年晚些时候,美联储提高利率开启了IT泡沫的破裂进程。

面对中国的经济泡沫,一个巨大的疑惑是中国并没有承受着巨大的贸易赤字。根据中国公布的数据,去年中国实现了255亿美元的贸易盈余,在2004年的头八个月里,中国的贸易赤字仅仅有 2.17亿美元。大多数新兴市场国家的泡沫一般是由巨额的贸易赤字引发的。这一事实给了绝大多数投机者以信心:中国的游戏还可以继续玩下去。

这一命题的部分原因是由于出现了乐观主义的幻觉。如果我们将中国大陆和香港的贸易收支统一计算,在2003年,贸易盈余为169亿美元,但是今年头八个月的贸易赤字高达102亿美元。中国大陆和香港之间的贸易受到了转移定价的影响。总计的图景是一个更好的指标,它表明中国已经出现了规模相当大的赤字。

现在有很多传闻说,有大量的柴油被走私到中国,以满足在电力短缺的时候柴油机对燃料的需求。如果把中国贸易伙伴的进口数据和中国的出口数据相比较,中国所公布的2003年数据可能把中国的出口夸大了9.6个百分点,2004年进一步夸大了6个百分点。如果考虑到数据质量的问题,中国的贸易赤字可能已经达到了其GDP的5-6%,这已经与其他新兴市场经济国家在经济泡沫中所经历的情况非常类似。

然而,目前很难对糟糕的数据质量提供一个令人信服的解释。在一个巨大的投资繁荣时期,中国在贸易收支方面能够表现良好是一件合情合理的事情。因为在过去的三年里,出现了全球的制造业向中国大规模转移。在投资泡沫中,结构性因素可能能够解释中国在贸易收支方面的良好表现。

关于贸易收支水平的讨论也许并不具有说明性。贸易赤字很可能在几个月内就得到了解决。但是,伴随着美联储不断地升息,中国的出口将会减少,不论生产能力是否在向中国结构性转移。如果中国的房地产泡沫持续发展,石油价格将继续走高,中国的进口将继续迅速增长。中国的贸易收支状况就会迅速恶化。在出口和进口的总额达到GDP的三分之一的情况下,如果出口下降10%——这在利率上升周期中是一个合理的结果,同时进口以超过30%的速度持续增长,贸易赤字很容易就能达到GDP的6-7%。

当然,在转折点的时候阻止这种情况的发生几乎是不可能的。借贷和固定资产投资增长率之间的差异将增加经济出现调整的可能性。去年,固定投资总额增长了27%,而金融机构的贷款只增长了 21.1%。今年,这种情况继续恶化到了30%对15.3%的水平。日益增加的房地产销售可能吸引资金从家庭部门直接进入了固定资产投资领域,这可能解释了为什么固定资产投资并没有放慢很多。然而,随着家庭部门耗尽他们的储蓄存款,作为剩下的唯一选择——银行贷款也会越来越难找到。在某种程度上,固定资产投资总额需要紧缩。

因为一些传闻可能已经暗示了转折点即将到来,我建议,应该密切关注上海的房地产和石油的变化。中国之所以能够买得起如此昂贵的石油是因为海外的中国人以不断上涨的价格购买了上海的房地产。中国的贸易条件是以上海房地产价格和石油价格的比率为条件存在的。这一比率的极限变化将威胁到当前投机泡沫的稳定性。(作者:谢国忠)

创业成功人物的特质

Wednesday, May 19th, 2004
创业成功人物的特质
作者:沙鸿伟 2004-5-19 14:45:13
出处:博客中国(Blogchina.com)
抗拒贫穷的心
怀抱目标与理想
超凡的眼光、独到的见解
坚韧不拔的信心与毅力
吃苦耐劳的精神
强烈的责任感与企图心
勇于挑战的精神
具备专业的知识
凡事计划翔实、执行明确
重视时间管理、掌握工作效率
广结善缘、建立丰富的人际关系
积极革新求变的心
不断学习、追求成长
永怀感谢的心
健康的身体

新时代财富人物

Wednesday, May 19th, 2004

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